[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N61W 15N59W 9N55W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 47W
AND 55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 17N
BETWEEN 47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 63W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PART OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREAS MAY
BE RELATED MORE CORRECTLY TO THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N19W TO
7N28W AND 5N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH 32N80W
TO 25N84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 23N89W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS
TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH APALACHICOLA BAY OF FLORIDA INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 22N98W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG 91W/92W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...INTO SOUTHERN
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO
23N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL
PLAINS...AWAY FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...INTO
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD AND
HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA...
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN MOBILE ALABAMA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW IS
APPROACHING HISPANIOLA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS THE
AREA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST EASTERLY WIND
FLOW...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND THEN AN INVERTED
TROUGH...WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE SECOND SET OF 24 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR
THE FIRST ONE-THIRD OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND ONE-THIRD OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
TROUGH...WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 28N65W AND 25N71W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
25N71W TO 22N77W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 22N77W TO 21N82W
AND TO 19N87W ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N67W 24N69W 23N71W 21N72W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N57W
TO 27N66W 24N71W 21N77W. SCATTERED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND
86W. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN COASTAL BELIZE DURING
THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 75W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 13N TO 20N. THE TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN LINGERING DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND
86W. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN COASTAL BELIZE DURING
THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 75W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 11N86W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 75W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE
CAUGHT UP IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW ALSO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 58W TROPICAL WAVE. EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9 FEET TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
52W AND 60W. EXPECT ALSO...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 14N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF
46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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