[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N58W TO 07N53W AND IS MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE
AXIS FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 48W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES TO 08N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N30W TO 05N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXES BETWEEN 17W-
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WHILE NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF WHICH IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N92W TO 14N94W IN THE
E PACIFIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING THE
TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE N
CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 20N79W
TO 14N78W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN WHERE HIGH MOISTURE IS
OBSERVED IN THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS MON AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN THROUGH FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
JAMAICA AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ISLANDWIDE AS WELL AS TSTMS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CEASE BY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DUE TO SURFACE HEATING ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH
30N61W ALONG 24N71W TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N68W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BAHAMAS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS
ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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