[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
9N28W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N31W TO
7N31W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE WITH NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N64W TO 10N63W
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-18N
BETWEEN 60W-62W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N18W TO THE 1013 MB LOW IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N28W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N34W AND CONTINUES ALONG
4N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 18W-
27W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 4N-14N E OF 32W TO THE COAST OF W
AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS E CONUS INTO THE N GULF N OF 26N W
OF 83W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 07/1500
UTC OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W TO A 1008 MB
LOW...REMNANTS OF KAREN...NEAR 29N84W CONTINUING ALONG 25N86W TO
24N92W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N3W ALONG 24N86W 22N91W TO
19N95W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF 84W S OF FRONT TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WITHIN 60 TO 90 S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING NE ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
ACROSS S FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE FURTHER ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES AND A 1024 MB HIGH OVER N MEXICO.
THIS IS GIVING THE N GULF COAST W OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR
15N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 86W TO INLAND OVER BELIZE. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA
RICA NEAR 9N83W AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N
BETWEEN 75W-83W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE E CONUS WILL ALLOW E
WINDS TO STRENGTHEN IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH
FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING
THE ISLAND MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE
INSTABILITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL BE PASSING S OF THE
ISLAND TUE AND WED WILL RESULT IN DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS S
FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N77W. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W TO BEYOND 32N78W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC BETWEEN 63W-77W WITH THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 31N72W AND EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N66W THROUGH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR
24N66W TO N OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 21N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF SURFACE
TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS NE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W ALONG 24N58W
TO BEYOND 32N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 54W-63W AND N OF 29N
BETWEEN 67W-70W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. THE 1013 MB
LOW WILL DRIFT NW WHILE DISSIPATING TONIGHT INTO TUE. COLD FRONT
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE N FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT
THEN WEAKEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W ATLC TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE THROUGH WED. THE FRONT WILL SAG FARTHER S THU AND
FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net