[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071223
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W TO THE SOUTH
OF 14N. THE WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED IN ORDER TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE THAT IS NEAR 10N ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO
CONFIRM THE POSITION OF THE LOW CENTER AND TROPICAL WAVE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 14N32W. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM 14N TO 19N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO
THE TROUGH IS IN THE SAME AREA AS THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS
ACCOMPANYING THE 61W/62W TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH-
WESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 12N17W TO 10N21W 5N30W AND 3N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN
18W AND 28W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 8N
BETWEEN 30W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR
20N ALONG 97W. THE 1007 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF
KAREN IS NEAR 29N86.5W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 92W AND LAND.

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...IN GUATEMALA...AND IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...OFF AND ON...DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF
27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM
PERRY WESTWARD...AND FROM SARASOTA TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN
AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM THE
KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION TO PUNTA GORDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
COLD FRONT FROM THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N86.5W
TO 20N97W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...WITHIN 120 NM
TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N71W IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N74W...ACROSS SOUTH-
EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 16N76W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N71W 28N67W...
TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N66W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IN A FEW
CLUSTERS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO 34N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 76W.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IS ALONG
59W FROM 19N TO 25N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND
65W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM 14N TO 19N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO
THE TROUGH IS IN THE SAME AREA AS THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS
ACCOMPANYING THE 61W/62W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.20 IN GUADELOUPE.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N72W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
TO 8N76W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 9N80W IN PANAMA...THROUGH 9N83W
IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...BEYOND THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST
OF 76W.

HISPANIOLA...

HISPANIOLA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT CUTS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N76W. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE NEARLY THE ENTIRE TIME. AN INVERTED
TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY IS
FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE
48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS
THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W FROM 19N TO 25N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
19N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N40W TO
25N40W 15N42W AND 9N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N36W
25N38W 20N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N32W 26N36W
19N39W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 48-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N35W
TO 28N48W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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