[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 051033
HLSMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
533 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...DISORGANIZED KAREN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN'S MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE AND
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE MID-EVENING FRIDAY.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND GULF COAST
WATERS AND BAYS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
UPPER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...LOWER BALDWIN...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...COASTAL
SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND COASTAL OKALOOSA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL
OF THE BAYS AND SOUNDS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND
GULF WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.1N...LONGITUDE 91.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 310 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE AL...OR ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PENSACOLA FL. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES COASTAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
STORM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL ADVISORIES AND RESULTANT
FORECAST IMPACTS HAVE THUS LESSENED. STORM SURGE EFFECTS ARE NOW
EXPECTED TO FORCE ONE TO THREE FEET OF INUNDATION FROM DESTIN
WESTWARD TO BAYOU LA BATRE. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS WILL BE OVER THE
UPPER REACHES OF MOBILE BAY...DAUPHIN ISLAND AND BAYOU LA BATRE WHERE
2 TO 3 FEET WILL PREVAIL. LESSER INUNDATION VALUES ARE FORECAST FROM
FORT MORGAN EASTWARD TO PENSACOLA TO DESTIN WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET IS
FORECAST. TIMING IS SUCH THAT WATER LEVELS WILL RISE TO THEIR HIGHEST
VALUES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EACH DAY WILL BE
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WIND AND WIND GUSTS INCREASE TONIGHT
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES... ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10 BOTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH
MAY DOWN A FEW POWER POLES AND CAUSE SPOTTY TREE DAMAGE. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF KAREN'S CENTER. THE TORNADO
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH KAREN AT THIS TIME APPEARS MINIMAL AND WOULD
BE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT WITH THE TORNADO
THREAT ENDING FROM THE WEST AS THE CIRCULATION PASSES AND WINDS BLOW
OFFSHORE.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE AROUND 1130 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

ALZ061>064-051845-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
533 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS HIGH LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY.
LARGE BREAKERS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE AND RESULTS
IN MINOR BEACH EROSION.

$$

FLZ001>006-051845-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
533 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS HIGH LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY.
LARGE BREAKERS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE AND RESULTS
IN MINOR BEACH EROSION.

$$

GMZ630>632-051845-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
533 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. MARINE WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THEN DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY WEST OF
PENSACOLA AND SPREAD EASTWARD THEREAFTER. WIND SPEEDS TAPER TO BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
HOURS. BAY AND SOUND WATERS BECOME VERY ROUGH ON SUNDAY AND ENDURE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASING TREND LATE MONDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON MONDAY
DUE TO BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVES.

$$

GMZ633-051845-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PERDIDO BAY-
533 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. MARINE WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THEN DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY WEST OF
PENSACOLA AND SPREAD EASTWARD THEREAFTER. WIND SPEEDS TAPER TO BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
HOURS. BAY AND SOUND WATERS BECOME VERY ROUGH ON SUNDAY AND ENDURE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASING TREND LATE MONDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON MONDAY
DUE TO BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVES.

$$

GMZ634-051845-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
533 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. MARINE WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THEN DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY WEST OF
PENSACOLA AND SPREAD EASTWARD THEREAFTER. WIND SPEEDS TAPER TO BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
HOURS. BAY AND SOUND WATERS BECOME VERY ROUGH ON SUNDAY AND ENDURE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASING TREND LATE MONDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON MONDAY
DUE TO BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVES.

$$

GMZ635-051845-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
533 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. MARINE WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THEN DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY WEST OF
PENSACOLA AND SPREAD EASTWARD THEREAFTER. WIND SPEEDS TAPER TO BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
HOURS. BAY AND SOUND WATERS BECOME VERY ROUGH ON SUNDAY AND ENDURE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASING TREND LATE MONDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON MONDAY
DUE TO BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND WAVES.

$$

GMZ650-655-670-675-051845-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
533 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. MARINE WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THEN DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY WEST OF
PENSACOLA AND SPREAD EASTWARD THEREAFTER. WIND SPEEDS TAPER TO BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
HOURS. SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 13 FEET ON SUNDAY...WITH A
DECREASING TREND ON MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON MONDAY DUE TO BOTH WIND
SPEEDS AND WAVES.

$$






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