[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
A DISCONTINUOUS INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 07N19W TO 07N33W...THEN
CONTINUES FROM 08N43W TO 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 18W-28W AND FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN
35W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EXTENDS
A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF GENERATING COOL DRY NE FLOW IN
THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT NE THROUGH SAT...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RELAX ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS WEEKEND. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
AND JAMAICA OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO 10N82W NEAR PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF
THE FRONT FROM 10-18N BETWEEN 81-84W. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS
FROM 1500 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE NW CARIB.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR ALOFT EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE
AWAY FROM THE AREA...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH THROUGH
SUN WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE.

...HISPANIOLA...
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL UNDER DRY AND STABLE N FLOW
ALOFT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST TRAILS A
COLD FRONT FROM E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W TO 25N72W...THEN AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA. A BLOCKING
RIDGE ALONG 60W WILL SHUNT WHAT REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH EARLY SAT. A MID LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDS A TROUGH SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE
LOW 1007 MB CENTERED NEAR 25N39W. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LOW
DRIFTING NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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