[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290214 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 28 2013

UPDATED FOR THE 29/0000 UTC PRECIPITATION AMOUNT FOR BERMUDA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THE AREA OF COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W
TO 9N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N16W TO 6N24W 7N39W 6N45W AND
4N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 TO
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N33W 8N36W 5N38W...FROM 6N TO 7N
BETWEEN 22W AND 23W...FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W...AND
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN
NORTHERN COASTAL SURINAME FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 65W...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W...JUST TO THE EAST OF
BERMUDA...TO 30N66W...27N70W...AND 25N73W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W 29N71W 25N74W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.16 FOR
BERMUDA.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE WEST OF AND AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 1034 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST...
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO 19N96W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KGBK...KEIR...KMYT...
KATP...AND KIPN. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ANGLETON-LAKE JACKSON AREA.
HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN LAKE
CHARLES LOUISIANA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING
REPORTED AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND AT
VALPARAISO IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST...
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... COVERS THE AREA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A NORTHWEST-
TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES
NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IT CHANGES AGAIN AND
BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE TIME
PERIOD WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 14N60W TO
16N65W TO 11N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 86W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
EAST OF 76W...AND TO THE WEST OF THE LINE 22N81W 18N85W 16N87W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF
80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA
TO THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS/THE NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 25N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WESTERN JAMAICA...TO 15N80W...CURVING TO 12N82W AND
10N82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 19N
BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N75 22N77W 18N80W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
28/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.59 IN
TRINIDAD...0.33 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...0.32 IN ST. THOMAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N80W AND 9N81W...AND IT IS ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF WESTERN PANAMA ALONG 8N BETWEEN
81W AND 82W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY
BE RELATED TO THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 21N76W TO 10N82W. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. A THIRD
AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND
74W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W...JUST TO THE EAST OF
BERMUDA...TO 30N66W...27N70W...AND 25N73W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W 29N71W 25N74W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N40W...TO 20N45W...
17N50W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS FROM 17N50W TO 16N55W AND 14N60W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 14N60W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 34W AND 46W.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N22W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N19W 27N20W 25N22W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 16W AND 22W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 22N61W...TO
15N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N67W 21N76W. WINDS 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT TO 77W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST
CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 56W AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
FROM 29N35W TO 24N48W TO 22N53W TO 22N56W. A FOURTH AREA OF
INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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