[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF AND IS FORECAST
THROUGHOUT WED MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEE
LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WED MORNING IN THE SW N
ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE SE
U.S. COAST. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
11N16W TO 07N20W 05N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 05N24W TO 06N37W TO 04N51W. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 02N-07N E
OF 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 20W-31W...FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 33W-38W AND
FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 39W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTS A 1005 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N90W. FROM THE LOW...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 24N92W TO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N91W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW ALONG 29N87W TO 26N85W 24N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 24N E OF
90W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HEAVY RAINSHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF
27N W OF 92W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF AND ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN BASIN TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BY EARLY WED THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE OUT OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
OVER GREAT PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
AT THE SURFACE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
TRADE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS WINDS UP TO 20 KT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE FAR NW BASIN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 83W-86W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
BANKING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTLINE OF NORTHERN
NICARAGUA TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 13N-15N W OF 82W.
OVER THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM COSTA
RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA ENHANCES SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 11N E
OF 79W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BEING ENHANCED BY MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IN THIS REGION OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 70W...INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
WED AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL WEST OF JAMAICA THROUGH THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONTINUE AS RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE N-NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE ISLAND. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHERN CUBA IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA WHILE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INLAND TUE AFTERNOON BUT SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT AS A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE ISLANDS THROUGHOUT
THU MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 30N52W TO 29N54W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 25N62W 24N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. DENSE
CLOUD COVER IS OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N
W OF 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS JUST N
OF THE TAIL OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 74W-76W. AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N25W EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SW TO THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 34W-39W AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 24W-29W. A
REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS AND E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 09N-13N WEST OF 50W. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC WED MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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