[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT TUE NIGHT. SEE LATEST
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WED MORNING IN THE SW N
ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE SE
U.S. COAST. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N15W TO 06N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N20W TO 04N30W 06N38W TO 05N45W. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N E OF 11W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 0N-10N
BETWEEN 20W-32W AND FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTS A 1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N93W. FROM THE LOW...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 24N93W TO 21N92W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N91W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO
SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W AND THEN ALONG 26N86W TO 23N84W WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF
23N E OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 40 NM OF
THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN 90W-92W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE
GULF AND ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN BASIN. BY EARLY WED THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE OUT
OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
OVER GREAT PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW DOMINATING. THIS IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE TRADE
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WHILE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS WINDS UP TO 20 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE NW BASIN N OF 18N W OF 81W AS WELL AS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE
NICARAGUA COASTLINE. OVER THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA ENHANCES SHOWERS
AND TSTMS S OF 11N E OF 79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 70W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR AS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE ISLAND. THIS IS
RESULTING IN CONTINUED STABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE ISLANDS
THROUGHOUT THU MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 30N54W SW TO 25N61W TO E OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 22N72W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY CONTINUES FROM 22N75W TO
NORTHERN CUBA TO THE SE GULF NEAR 23N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHWARD W OF 75W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N BETWEEN 32W-40W. A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WED MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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