[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A GALE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC W OF A STATIONARY FRONT N OF
28N BETWEEN W OF THE FRONT TO 60W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N40W 7N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 17W-
28W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS DISSIPATED. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N97W TO 18N94W PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE NW
GULF FROM MEXICO...OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE
GULF EXCEPT THE SE GULF. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF
PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS....A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR IS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W TO INCLUDE CUBA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY HAITI IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ISLAND THAT
SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM BUILDING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED OVER THE
ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W
TO 26N50W TO 21N56W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO JUST N OF HAITI
AT 20N72W. A GALE WARNING IS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 28N
W OF THE FRONT TO 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM E OF THE FRONT AND 90 NM W OF THE FRONT. A RIDGE AXIS IS
N OF 15N E OF THE FRONT. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 15N58W TO 9N59W. A 1009 MB LOW IS
EMBEDDED ON THE TROUGH AT 11N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 60W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR A 1009 MB LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT NEAR 26N51W WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW TO BE NEAR
TRINIDAD IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS

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