[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A GALE IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH E TO SE WINDS FROM 25N
TO 28N E OF 87W. A 16/0224 UTC ASCAT PASS VERIFIED THE GALE
FORCE WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW GALE THIS MORNING AT
16/1200 UTC.

A GALE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC W OF A STATIONARY FRONT N OF
28N BETWEEN 45W-60W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW GALE THIS
AFTERNOON AT 16/1800 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W 7N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
6N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 10W-
32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TAIL END OF A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N82W TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N88W. SURFACE WINDS ARE 20 KT
HIGHER ON THE N SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE TO INCLUDE GALE FORCE
WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ELSEWHERE...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N97W TO 18N95W
PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER MOST OF THE GULF DUE TO
SURFACE RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 20N74W TO W CUBA AT 23N82W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA N OF 20N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N
BETWEEN 86W-88W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT
7N76W TO N COSTA RICA AT 10N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. FURTHER E...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS....A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
JAMAICA PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W TO
INCLUDE CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY HAITI IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ISLAND THAT
SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM BUILDING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED OVER THE
ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N65W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 32N44W TO
26N50W TO 21N56W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO E CUBA AT 20N74W. A
GALE IS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W-60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N15W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N35W. IN THE TROPICS... A SURFACE
TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N58W TO 9N59W. A 1009
MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE TROUGH AT 11N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR A 1009 MB LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT NEAR 26N51W WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW TO BE NEAR
TRINIDAD IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net