[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 9N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N28W TO 6N43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A REMNANT SHEAR LINE REMAINS ENTERING THE GULF FROM OVER CUBA
NEAR HAVANA TO 26N89W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GIVE THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N
E OF 88W TO OVER FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF
EXTENDING ALONG 94W FROM 24N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE NW
ATLC. THE SHEAR LINE WILL LIFT N AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NE GULF
THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF COAST MON
STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TUE THEN BECOME DIFFUSE OVER
THE S GULF WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR
17N80W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 78W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-22N W OF 83W TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 21N W OF 80W
INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 9N FROM COLOMBIA TO PANAMA/COSTA RICA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE
FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N78W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALONG 70W S OF 14N TO
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
ISLAND AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC W OF 65W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF
74W. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE S OF 27N W OF 76W INCLUDING
BAHAMAS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N43W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 24N54W TO 21N70W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE OVER CUBA
NEAR BANES TO HAVANA THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE COLD
FRONT E OF 63W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF BERMUDA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 56W/57W
FROM 9N-15N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 54W-58W.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. SHEAR LINE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST
EARLY TUE REACHING FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE AND FROM
31N68W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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