[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Nov 15 13:56:28 CST 2013


AXNT20 KNHC 151956 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2013

CORRECTIONS FOR THE SECTION ABOUT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO GULF OF
MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND FOR THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1915 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS BORDER AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
SENEGAL AND WESTERN GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W TO 10N19W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 10N19W TO 9N20W 5N29W 7N33W 6N43W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 3N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 50W. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N16W TO 29N22W...TO A 26N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
14N33W...AND 6N37W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE EAST OF 6N36W 16N31W 25N26W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 40W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 26N50W
22N60W TO 21N73W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
21N73W TO 22N80W 23N90W AND 20N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 89W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W 28N44W
27N47W 25N55W 23N61W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...ARE 0.20 IN MERIDA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS INLAND FROM WESTERN LOUISIANA INTO EASTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
MEXICO FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN 97W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 103W
IN MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS...KBQX...
KMYT...AND KMDJ. THE VISIBILITY AT ICAO STATION KATP IS 2 MILES
OR LESS WITH HAZE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM PALACIOS
TOWARD THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
LOUISIANA...RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS SURROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO
BROOKSVILLE INCLUDING THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED
CLOUD CEILING COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF FLORIDA TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 10 FEET FROM 23N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 88W. A SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO
10 FEET FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. A THIRD AREA OF
INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING
HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALSO COVERS HISPANIOLA. FAIR SKIES APPEAR
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE MOMENT.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE
WIND FLOW AT 700 MB WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE
WIND FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY...EASTERLY...AND
NORTHERLY...DURING THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE
TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE SOUTH...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST
FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA...AS IT WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN 85W RIDGE
FOR 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
AREA...ALONG 66W/67W FROM 9N IN COASTAL VENEZUELA TO 15N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 67W AND
70W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.03 IN
CURACAO...AND 0.04 IN TRINIDAD. OTHER TOTALS ARE 0.23 IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.14 IN ST. THOMAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE EAST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 71W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR...EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALSO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W...
BEYOND 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N77W
11N81W 12N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED <STRONG> ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA TOWARD THE BORDERS OF NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W. A
SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W...
INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 9N TO 15N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 28N37W AND TO 20N50W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N47W TO 22N65W THEN
STATIONARY FRONT TO 21N77W. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 14 FEET...EXCEPT 12 TO 15 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 57W...TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT TO 65W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 12 FEET
FROM 23N TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 70W TO THE BAHAMAS. A THIRD AREA
OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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