[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO
12N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N18W TO 7N21W 5N41W AND 5N50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN
44W AND 50W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
52W AND 57W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N
BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 16W AND 33W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO
24N48W 18N54W 14N57W AND 11N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W 25N43W 20N49W
15N51W 10N54W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N54W
14N56W 7N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 50W...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO
31N59W AND DISSIPATING. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 28N65W AND
27N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N73W TO 26N81W IN
SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 23N90W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
CURVING INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 45 NM OF CUBA BETWEEN 82W AND 86W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
21N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N
TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W...AND FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND
73W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 26N66W 24N72W
26N85W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 19N97W. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
09/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.17 IN BERMUDA.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TOWARD
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF MEXICO AND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT
THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KGUL...KGBK...KMYT...
KDLP...AND CLEARING AT KVAF AND KMDJ. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT EDINBURG AND
FALFURRIAS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS PARTS OF
SKIES THAT ARE NEAR PANAMA CITY. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS IN
VALPARAISO FLORIDA. THE SKIES ARE CLEARING AROUND TALLAHASSEE.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SKIES FROM NAPLES TO THE
TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
...AND THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 26N81W 23N90W 18N93W FOR
DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF
94W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 23N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W...INCLUDING
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS SURROUND
HISPANIOLA...FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS APPROACHING
HISPANIOLA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND BEYOND.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT GENERAL EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL BE AT 500 MB. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE AT 250 MB.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 13N81W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 79W/80W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. THIS TROUGH SHOWS
UP WELL IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO
THE WEST OF 74W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N82W IN WESTERN PANAMA...THROUGH
COSTA RICA FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...THROUGH WESTERN
NICARAGUA...ACROSS EL SALVADOR...BEYOND 14N90W IN SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT REALLY EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT
IS RELATED SOLELY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PRESENT WITH THE 13N81W CYCLONIC
CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 18-HOUR FORECAST OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND
76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 30N21W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W...TO 9N27W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 30N
BETWEEN 17W AND 30W... AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
23W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 28N36W AND TO 23N46W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COLD 31N58W 27N73W...
STATIONARY 27N73W 26N80W. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET WITHIN 180 NM TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A
SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM
8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF A LINE 28N35W 14N61W
07N50W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND
46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net