[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W TO 11N185W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N27W 4N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 38W-
43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 3N31W TO 7N49W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 2N-8N BETWEEN 10W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
IN THE W ATLC WHICH BECOMES STATIONARY JUST S OF NAPLES FLORIDA
AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 24N88W 22N92W TO INLAND OVER
S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE S OF 20N BETWEEN 92W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO S OF 22N W OF 95W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE GULF WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF THE
FRONT BETWEEN 80W-87W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. FRONT WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY SE AND EXTEND FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING THEN
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS LATE TUE THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N83W
COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 74W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOTING THE AREA FROM 15N-22N W OF 80W. A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 12N80W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-75W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 74W-80W LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
AND E CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE THIS MORNING. DRY STABLE AIR
AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N60W AND CONTINUES ALONG
28N69W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO FLORIDA NEAR FORT
LAUDERDALE BECOMING STATIONARY JUST S OF NAPLES FLORIDA BEFORE
CONTINUING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 70W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. THE
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N76W ALONG 25N64W TO BEYOND 32N54W. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 50W N OF
23N SUPPORTING A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
27N54W TO 31N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 23N48W TO BEYOND 32N42W. A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS E OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 38W
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO BEYOND 32N ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N52W TO 7N56W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
150/200 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE AZORES.
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N57W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SUN. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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