[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N28W 7N35W 5N41W TO 5N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 30W-
36W AND WITHIN 180/200 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE GULF JUST N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 84W-89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 27N E OF 90W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER
THE W GULF TO MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
N GULF ANCHORED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND VIRGINIA. THIS IS
GIVING THE REMINDER OF THE GULF TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS MORNING. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THIS SURFACE RIDGE GENERATING NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE E GULF. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NW GULF EARLY TONIGHT REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD S
ACROSS OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS IN THE W AND SW GULF BEHIND FRONT
BY THU AFTERNOON AND SPREAD S INTO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH
FRI BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 19N81W
GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN S FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH
THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 21N84W ALONG 19N85W TO THE COAST
OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NEAR 16N87W TO THE COAST OF W CUBA NEAR 22N84W. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO A WEAK UPPER LOW N OF THE
MONA PASSAGE CONTINUING TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR N OF THIS UPPER TROUGH.
THE PERSISTENT BROAD 1008 MB LOW IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SE TO 16N77W WITH CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
TO THE LESSER ANTILLES INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...SW HAITI...AND W CUBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY
THE UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO S OF JAMAICA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT SW HAITI WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING SUE TO
THE DRY AIR N OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA. ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE S PORTION OF THE ISLAND THROUGH TODAY
CONTINUING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THU THROUGH SUN THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOMING LESS SEVERE. AS USUAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC WITH
AN UPPER AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO BERMUDA. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A 1032 MB HIGH OVER VIRGINIA. THIS IS
PRODUCING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING NE WINDS 20 TO 25
KT W OF 70W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N56W ALONG 25N62W TO A WEAK UPPER LOW N OF THE MONA
PASSAGE CONTINUING TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED THROUGH 32N46W ALONG 30N56W TO
28N60W TO 25N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 20N60W TO BEYOND 32N49W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N69W TO 22N69W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NE OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N47W TO 10N52W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N52W TO 14N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 13N39W 20N38W TO
23N45W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. STRONG WINDS OVER THE W ATLC WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND
VEER MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS E TO N/CENTRAL ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE SE
CONUS COAST ON THU AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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