[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 11N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 10N25W 8N30W TO 9N35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 3N27W
TO 12N35W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN
8N-11N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 22W-
25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO THE SE GULF JUST N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 23N87W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 83W-88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT
THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 84W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN ALONG 90W S OF 22N
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 89W-92W. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N93W EXTENDS NE TO
OVER THE E CONUS COVERING THE REMINDER OF THE GULF INTO THE W
ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE N GULF ANCHORED OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS IS GIVING THE REMINDER OF THE GULF
TRANQUIL WEATHER TONIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDING FOR NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT E OF
90W. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT AND WED
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF WED NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO W BAY OF
CAMPECHE THU AND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
FRI. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD S IN THE SW GULF BEHIND FRONT
BY THU EVENING AND INTO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH FRI BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 19N80W
GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN N FLOW ALOFT AND S FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W TO THE
COAST OF W CUBA NEAR 22N83W. A PERSISTENT BROAD 1008 MB LOW IS S
OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-80W INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND W CUBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA. BROAD LOW WILL
DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE BY WED. A BROAD TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATING LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH
FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOT THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. THE ISLAND IS
UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N78W. THIS FLOW WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
NE AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS N OVER W CUBA. ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THEN WILL
BECOMING LESS SEVERE THU AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES W AND THE
UPPER TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA MOVES E...ALL AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC W OF
70W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB LOW
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS IS PRODUCING A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN GENERATING NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT W OF 68W. A NARROW
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N57W ALONG
24N64W TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N73W SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED THROUGH 32N45W ALONG 31N50W TO
29N57W WHERE IT BECOMES COLD TO 25N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 175/225 NM OF LINE FROM 19N66W
TO BEYOND 32N50W. THE SURFACE LOW PREVIOUSLY NEAR 25N66W IS
NOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N68W TO 23N67W. THE E ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH E OF
THE AZORES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N48W TO TO 10N56W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N51W TO 13N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 13N39W
19N39W TO 23N45W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG WINDS OVER THE W ATLC WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AND VEER MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS E TO N/CENTRAL ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SE OFF THE SE CONUS COAST ON THU AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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