[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Nov 5 00:03:09 CST 2013

AXNT20 KNHC 050602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N59W TO 26N65W...THEN
SHEAR LINE TO 22N76W. WITHIN 60 NM OF E COAST OF FLORIDA N OF
25N NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT. ELSEWHERE NW OF FRONT AND SHEAR LINE N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT NE OF BAHAMAS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE 05/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL AFRICA THROUGH THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL AND GAMBIA...TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 11N18W TO 7N22W 7N36W AND 7N43W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 11W AND
13W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE EAST OF 30W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 12N TO 19N. A WEAKENING
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
17N47W. COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N103W IN MEXICO
TO 25N98W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...BEYOND 32N92W IN
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 26N80W 24N85W 19N90W 15N90W. SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS BETWEEN 92W AND 97W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO 24N96W IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS...TO THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS THAT RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 4000 FEET TO 8000
FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...
KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...KMDJ...KMYT...
AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS
COASTAL PLAINS FROM ANGLETON-LAKE JACKSON TO THE HOUSTON HOBBY
AIRPORT INCLUDING IN GALVESTON. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING ALL AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO THE EAST OF 87W...AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 87W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER...ACROSS HAITI...TO 22N70W AND
23N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ..ALONG 27N64W 23N67W TO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 69W AND
70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO
20N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 69W
AND 77W INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.41 IN CURACAO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N84W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS SUCH AS CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND FLORIDA
FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 79W AND 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 18N TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PERIODS
OF SHORT-WAVE INVERTED TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AT TIMES...THROUGH THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE...TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE 29N75W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO END UP
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND
PART OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... AS A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO
28N64W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N65W 27N73W 27N80W. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO
29N62W 27N64W AND 25N67W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 25N67W TO
24N74W AND TO 21N77W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N
TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
21N84W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS SUCH AS CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND FLORIDA
FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 79W AND 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 18N TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.55 IN
BERMUDA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 86W
IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT REALLY EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT
IS RELATED SOLELY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PRESENT WITH THE 21N84W CYCLONIC
CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N17W
TO A 28N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N31W...TO A
27N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N11W
31N17W 29N36W 27N43W 26N50W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET FROM 16N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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