[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
12N16W TO 07N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N19W TO 06N30W TO 06N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 14W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN WHICH IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLC SW OVER THE SE CONUS TO EAST-CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 27N90W. A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THUS PROVIDING FOR NE TO E WINDS
IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT N OF 24N E OF 96W. WEST OF 96W AND N
OF 24N...E WINDS VEER SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM 25N95W
TO 19N92W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AN ELONGATED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW EXTENDING SW FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO
GUATEMALA SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N87W...ALONG THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTHERN BELIZE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N82W
WHICH EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SW TO ANOTHER BROADER UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 14N91W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 16N W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN SEA IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 15N74W. AT THE SURFACE AND WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTER...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N75W FROM WHICH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO HAITI TO THE SW N ATLC NEAR
28N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF
15N BETWEEN 68W-78W...INCLUDING HAITI...WESTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. EAST OF 65W...NORTHERLY
FLOW DOMINATES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE NE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT WESTWARD TO BE SW OF JAMAICA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED SW OF HAITI
NEAR 15N74W. AT THE SURFACE AND WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTER...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N75W FROM WHICH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO HAITI...THUS GENERATING A CLUSTER
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS THAT EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL HAITI TO WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE
LOW DRIFTS WESTWARD AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLC WITH BASE NEAR 31N66W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 30N62W TO 28N64W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR
LINE TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO SE CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 160 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE FROM 20N-26N. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N63W SW TO NORTHERN HAITI NEAR 19N72W
TO A 1008 MB LOW SE OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE E OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 60W-64W.
FARTHER EAST...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N47W
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 19N44W TO 13N45W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 09N-23N BETWEEN 20W-
31W...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net