[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
FORMER TROPICAL WAVE HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N91W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 11N90W IN
THE E PACIFIC. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OFF THE COASTLINES OF EL
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA...FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 89W-92W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 06N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N34W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 04N-07N E OF 14W AND FROM
01N-08N BETWEEN 16W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC NEAR 37N54W. SURFACE RIDGING IN
THIS REGION IS BEING REINFORCED BY AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN CENTRAL MEXICO AT THE UPPER LEVELS. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY
AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT IN THE NW GULF FROM
29N90W TO 27N96W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO
24N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA
NEAR 29N90W TO 26N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF DOMINATES
THE WESTERN BASIN. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF
HISPANIOLA AND IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
THIS ISLAND AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN 69W-75W.
A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BASIN SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N63W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 12N69W. UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 69W...INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HISPANIOLA...
AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF HISPANIOLA AND IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
PATTERS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY.
CONTINUOUS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEARLINE FROM 30N52W SW TO 27N62W.
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SWATH OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN A LINE FROM 30N50W TO 24N57W AND A
LINE FROM 30N60W TO 25N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES FROM 17N59W TO 10N58W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
N OF 20N IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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