[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010607
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N90W TO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 12N90W AND IS DRIFTING WEST AT
ABOUT 10-15 KT. FROM THE PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA...THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A SMALL
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER EL SALVADOR AND
ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS WESTERN HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES TO 06N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N35W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N-09N E OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC NEAR 37N57W. SURFACE RIDGING IN
THIS REGION IS BEING REINFORCED BY AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN CENTRAL MEXICO AT THE UPPER LEVELS. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY
AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE NW GULF
FROM 28N96W TO 25N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SE
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W TO 25N94W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SWATH OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 130 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF DOMINATES
THE WESTERN BASIN. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF
HISPANIOLA AND IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
THIS ISLAND AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-76W. A MIDDLE-
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BASIN SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM EASTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W TO 11N66W. UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 68W...INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

HISPANIOLA...
AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF HISPANIOLA AND IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SIMILAR CONVECTION OFF THE
NORTHERN COASTLINE OF THE ISLAND. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEING
SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. CONTINUOUS RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEARLINE FROM 29N53W SW TO 20N60W.
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SWATH OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN A LINE FROM 30N51W TO 18N61W AND A
LINE FROM 30N59W TO 20N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM
15N55W TO 08N56W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE
TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 18N IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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