[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG GUYANA AND BRAZIL FROM 08N59W TO
01N60W AND IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE OF 700
MB WIND STREAMLINES ALSO DEPICTS THE AXIS OF THIS WAVE. THERE IS
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N19W TO 05N30W TO 04N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 22W-34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-07N BETWEEN 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WATERS BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NE GULF...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR 28N82W
TO 28N85W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA
AND MAY BE EXTENDING ABOUT 20 NM OFF THE COAST. A SQUALL LINE
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXTENDING INTO NE MEXICO IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD BE GENERATING RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF THIS EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER
GULF...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT SPREAD
ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONTS OVER THE
NE GULF DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WHILE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THUS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXCEPT FOR THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...THE CARIBBEAN FINDS ITSELF
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH THAT
IS ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. THERE IS
HIGH HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROUGH PARTICULARLY OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES. ENHANCEMENTS OF SATELLY IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURING OVER E CUBA...LA
HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...WETERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES N OF 17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OBSERVED S OF 15N W OF 77W LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER COSTA RICA.
TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN AND ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE SUPPORTING RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

HISPANIOLA...
THE CARIBBEAN FINDS ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH THAT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE
ISLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE
OVER THE ISLAND ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ENHANCEMENTS INDICATE THAT RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCURRING OVER THE W AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
SUPPORTING RAINSHOWERS ACROSS LA HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE N EASTERN
CONUS TO EASTERN CUBA IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLC FROM 30N73W TO 26N76W AND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 30N78W TO 29N81W. THERE IS NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS JUST SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 68W-
74W. OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N36W TO 25N37W TO 22N43W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 30W-36W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC N OF 20N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH CENTERS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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