[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 58W TO 07N57W MOVING
W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER INLAND PORTIONS
OF SURINAME AND GUYANA AND COINCIDES WITH GLOBAL MODEL 700 MB
TROUGH AXIS ANALYSES AND A MAXIMUM OF 700 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
AT THAT LEVEL. EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE
WAVE REMAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
BETWEEN 55W-61W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N19W TO 04N33W TO 03N41W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 24W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-NORTHWESTLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 98W THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO TO
THE U.S. PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA. THIS WELL-
AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH IMPACTING
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF BASIN AS WELL. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE N-NE OVER THE U.S ATLC SEABOARD...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG 30N TO MOBILE BAY AND THEN W-NW TO
THE NORTH TEXAS AREA. THE FRONT REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE YET A
LOWER DEWPOINT...DRIER...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILTER IN NORTH OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING IS SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS PROVIDING
OVER AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS MOST OF THE ACTIVE DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-85W AND IS
LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS ALONG 08N/09N. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
THESE SHOWERS FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF 16N70W AND ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTH OF 15N EAST OF 64W. THE NE CARIBBEAN FINDS
ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 22N60W RESULTING IN THE INCREASED
CONVECTION. E-NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE ISLAND WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING TO THE EAST OVER PUERTO
RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF 72W AND THIS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. OVERALL SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND BY SATURDAY SURFACE TROUGHING
WILL LIE ACROSS THE ISLAND PROVIDING FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
THE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLC STATES TO 32N78W TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF REMAINS
FAIRLY PRECIPITATION-FREE...MUCH OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
31N76W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N BETWEEN
70W-77W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N57W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 57W-70W. A PORTION OF THIS
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED DUE TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE VICINITY OF 22N60W. FARTHER EAST...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N50W WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 45W. THIS TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N37W TO 27N37W TO 23N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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