[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N47W TO EQ49W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DISRUPT
THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120/150 EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 2N-6N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 42W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 82W S OF 13N ACROSS PANAMA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE IS ILL DEFINED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
11N BETWEEN 80W AND THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N27W TO 5N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROF E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER GUINEA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
IVORY AND GRAIN COASTS OF AFRICA...WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
8N15W TO 1N27W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 28W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH DIPS S FROM SE GEORGIA TO OVER NE FLORIDA GENERATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W
AND SE SURFACE FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE SW GULF WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-26N W OF 95W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NE GULF LATE FRI THEN E OF THE GULF SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 14N79W TO E
PANAMA NEAR 8N77W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO PUERTO RICO AND FROM OVER
JAMAICA TO E CUBA BETWEEN 75W-79W.  W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF REGION THROUGH
SUN. ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVIE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
THROUGH TONIGHT INCREASING WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE
AND PUERTO PLATA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N79W
OVER THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W-80W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N60W TO FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N40W TO 27N41W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. WEAK COLD FRONT
ENTER NW PORTION FRI AND DRIFT E ACROSS WATERS N OF 26N THROUGH
MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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