[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N45W TO EQ48W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
DISRUPTS THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 81W/82W S OF 13N ACROSS PANAMA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS ILL DEFINED
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N28W TO 5N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 11W-15W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF LIBERIA AND GUINEA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 20W-
25W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A WEAK
1015 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W AND SE
SURFACE FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF WITH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N W OF 95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 85W INCLUDING S
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THU. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SKIRT NE GULF LATE FRI THEN
DRIFT E THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W-80W AND IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E
OF 69W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N
W OF 86W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF REGION THROUGH SUN. ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVIE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THU NIGHT
INCREASING WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND THU.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
ISLAND. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
EVIDENCE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE FAR W ATLC
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N BAHAMAS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 74W-79W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OBSERVED ON RADAR N OF 25N
W OF 79W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N61W TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N41W TO
25N41W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1038 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. WEAK COLD FRONT ENTER NW
PORTION FRI AND DRIFT E ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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