[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N44W TO 06N42W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ IN A BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING BETWEEN 39W-47W. THIS AREA ALSO
COINCIDES IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 06N38W TO 01N46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N80W TO 13N78W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. AS OF 22/1200 UTC...THE WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED FARTHER
WEST DUE TO FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE MOVEMENT OF POTENTIAL
VORTICITY OF THE GFS 315K THETA FIELDS AND LOCATION AND MOVEMENT
OF GFS AND ECMWF 700 MB TROUGH AXES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
08N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N22W TO 04N30W TO 04N42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 09W...AND FROM
02N-09N BETWEEN 18W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ACROSS THE GULF W
OF 85W WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSING E-NE OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM
31N93W TO ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 87W-94W.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA S-SE
OVER THE LENGTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 24N77W. MOST OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH S-SE WINDS IN
THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 70W ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME N OF 15N
W OF 70W WITH E-SE TRADE WINDS PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO
20 KT. THE EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-83W AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N NORTH OF PANAMA AND
ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W IS ALSO
INFLUENCING INCREASE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. EAST OF 72W...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS DOMINATE AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THAT REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE E-
SE TRADE WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC WATERS SE TO
OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT REMAINS MAXIMIZED
OVER THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS TO THE EAST WHILE E-SE TRADE
WINDS PERSIST AT THE SURFACE. A WIDE SWATH OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS NOTED ON IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES NORTHWEST TO BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE... THESE INGREDIENTS ALONG WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR SW NORTH ATLC WATERS W OF 72W THAT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 22N
BETWEEN 70W-81W. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N59W. FARTHER EAST...A CENTRAL ATLC UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS LARGELY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
AXIS ALONG 42W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W AND EXTENDS SW TO
27N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA N
OF 28N BETWEEN 35W-43W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB
HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 50N23W.

NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO
0400 UTC AND HAS IMPACTED THE FULL SUITE OF IMAGERY AVAILABLE
FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND
100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS
TIME. GOES-14 IS BEING ACTIVATED AND THE FIRST IMAGES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME AVAILABLE AROUND 0500 UTC THU MAY 23.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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