[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N38W THROUGH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR
4N39.5W TO 2N40W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DISRUPTS THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90
NM OF LINE FROM 7N36W TO 4N43W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 18N TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW AT 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-18N
BETWEEN 66W-71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 6N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N29W TO 5N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 3N TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA
E OF 7W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 10N-12N E OF 17W TO
THE W COAST OF AFRICA...AND FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 16W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS S MEXICO/W YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR
MOBILE ALABAMA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH S TO SE RETURN
FLOW COVERING THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING MOISTURE
ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
FAR W GULF LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM S OF 26N E OF
83W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NE GULF LATE FRI THEN DRIFT SE THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO DIPS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA NW
FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N75W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA
RICA NEAR 11N83W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN W OF 80W AND WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TRADE WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS JUST N OF THE ISLAND EXTENDING NW OVER THE
W ATLC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE N OF
THE ISLAND IS MOVING E AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK
W. THIS COULD BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR W ATLC AMPLIFYING
AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E EXTENDS FROM N OF HISPANIOLA TO OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN 74W-79W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 30N W OF 79W TO THE COAST OF
FLORIDA AND OVER S FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024
MB HIGH NEAR 32N59W TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A DYING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N43W TO 27N52W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 29N41W TO
BEYOND 32N39W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S EXTENDING FROM
27N47W TO 24N50W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. A WEAK TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF NE FLORIDA N OF GRAND BAHAMA THU. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NW PORTION FRI AND DRIFT IN E ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N
THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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