[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W
TO 6N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 6N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W
3N40W 3N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 26N80W TO 23N90W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 23N95W 19N95W...AS OF 0300
UTC. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF ALONG 22N94W 19N93W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND WEST OF THE
FRONT AND INTO EASTERN MEXICO SOUTH OF 95N. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AROUND TWO 1024 MB HIGHS NEAR 30N89W
AND 30N93W. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE TWO HIGH
CENTERS INCREASING TO 15 KT JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE ALSO REACHING 15 KT.
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AROUND A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WHILE THE
WESTERN PORTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE. MOISTURE OVER THE SW GULF
WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH AS RETURN FLOW BUILDS AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS JUST
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE BASIN. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WEST ATLC AND
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
74W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N71W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG 26N77W 26N80W...AS
OF 0300 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE UP TO 120 NM EAST OF THE AXIS
NORTH OF 28N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SOUTH ALONG 25N71W
20N72W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH EXCEPT
FOR A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE
SOUTH. A RIDGE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE RIDGE RIDGE IS NARROW AND
ALONG 58W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO NARROW AND EXTENDS FROM
32N42W TO JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N60W. THE
SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS BROAD AND COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 8N33W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH NEAR 42N39W. FAIR CONDITIONS SPREAD
ACROSS THIS AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY
BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES
ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT
WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS
ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
WALTON

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