[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N18W
TO 2N30W AND 2N40W...TO 50W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W...FROM
4N TO 5N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W...AND FROM 2N IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 2S IN BRAZIL BETWEEN 41W AND 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N
TO THE EAST OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...
ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES
30N77W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 24N94W AND 19N95W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG
91W/92W FROM 19N TO 23N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE
WEST OF 82W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO
NEAR 27N111W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER
TO 20N120W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS
MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWARD.
THE WIND FLOW PATTERN CHANGES FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
TO A 1025 MB TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N95W...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO A MEXICO
1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N99W.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR
STATION AND IN MARATHON KEY. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS...
INTO LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND ELSEWHERE
IN FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KGUL.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N21W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 32N40W AND 28N46W...TO A 25N58W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N51W...16N57W...INTO
NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 9N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 72W. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EASTERLY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST
OF 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N69W...TO A 1014 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N70W...TO 21N70W...ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N72W NEAR ITS BORDER WITH HAITI.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 74W.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND/OR HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING IN HISPANIOLA DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 7N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 12N78W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COASTAL BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N83W IN COSTA RICA...INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 73W
AND 78W FROM COLOMBIA INTO PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W
IN PANAMA AND COASTAL WATERS...AND ALONG 84W FROM 9N
TO 10N IN COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N15W TO 25N20W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N54W TO 28N59W 24N62W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N65W...TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ
TO THE EAST OF 64W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT
31N70W 27N74W 24N81W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
62W AND 67W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
72W AND 76W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST
OF 49W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY
BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES
ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT
WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS
ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
MT


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