[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W
TO 7N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
7N24W TO 2N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 0N50W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 10W-23W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 23W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE W ATLANTIC
WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. 10-15 SW SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE W GULF WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER TEXAS ABOUT
120 NM FROM THE COAST MOVING SE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOW OVER S TEXAS AND THE NW GULF FROM 25N-29N
BETWEEN 97W-100W. FURTHER E...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA
CITY MOVING E. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF
AND W CUBA WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA
TO THE NW GULF WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
12N83W TO 9N80W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA.
FURTHER E ... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
AT 18N68W TO THE W ATLANTIC AT 24N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N
OF 18N E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER COSTA RICA PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN MOVING E. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF GUATEMALA TO PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN...
AS WELL AS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF PUERTO RICO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...AND FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS N OF THE MONA PASSAGE IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-27N
BETWEEN 60W-68W. FURTHER E... A 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N32W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO
36N36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-36N
BETWEEN 30W-38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC AT 25N68W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT 32N36W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO BE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE E ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY
BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES
ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT
WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS
ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
FORMOSA

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