[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W
TO 7N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N22W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N34W
EQ43W 1S52W AND INTO NORTHERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 26W-29W...AND FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 35W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...SOME HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING BOTH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W TO 27N95W. RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER SE LOUISIANA
JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALSO CONTINUE TO THE EAST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A FEW
LARGE CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS ALSO
ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES AND IS CURRENTLY OVER MISSISSIPPI. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE BASIN BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES INTO
THE FAR WESTERN GULF PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NW PORTION. ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...SURFACE TROUGHING IS STILL
PRESENT ALONG 13N83W 10N81W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WEST OF THE TROUGH ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA CONTINUING
INTO THE EAST PACIFIC. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD INTO THE EAST PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA BUT EXTENDS INTO
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. THE TROUGH ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 70W IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE HEAVY SHOWERS. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND WILL BRING MOISTURE AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA AND THE OTHER NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. TRADEWIND
FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BESIDES NEAR THE TROUGH IN THE SW PORTION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC AROUND A 1022 MB
HIGH NEAR 30N74W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS CONTINUING JUST EAST
OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST ALONG 70W IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 25N69W 19N70W. A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS EAST OF THE TROUGH NORTH
OF 21N BETWEEN 62W-69W. SOUTH OF 21N TWO CLUSTERS OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE BEING SWEPT UP BY A FRONT. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN ATLC
CENTERED AROUND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 33N37W. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS
A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N31W. SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS
EXTEND FROM THE LOW CENTER. THE FIRST EXTENDS SOUTH TO 26N32W.
NO SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS WEST TO
NEAR 31N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 36W-40W.
A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTH AND OUT OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST ATLC IS UNDER FAIR
CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY
BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES
ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT
WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS
ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
WALTON

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