[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 6N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
6N17W TO 1N25W TO 0N38W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 0W-6W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
10W-13W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ
FROM 1N-44 BETWEEN 17W-28W...AND FROM 3N-3S BETWEEN 28W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC... A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N93W. 5-10 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE
GULF PRODUCING SEAS OF ONLY 1-3 FT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF WITHIN 180 NM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO.
THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE
GULF FROM 31N84W TO 29N88W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 25N80W TO 24N84W. THIS
PORTION OF THE FRONT IS VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...A LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 33N84W
PRODUCING WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER
FLORIDA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE OVER
THE GULF. ALSO EXPECT A 1018 MB HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER S
FLORIDA...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF HISPANIOLA AT 16N70W TO NW
VENEZUELA AT 9N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH. FURTHER S...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E COLOMBIA
NEAR 5N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 66W-76W. 10 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 77W. THE W CARIBBEAN
HAS 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. ONLY BEAUFORT ONE SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE
NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE WESTERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 72W AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BROKEN HIGH CLOUD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO N COLOMBIA DUE TO
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W AT 10 KTS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A TRIPLE POINT IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA AT 35N75W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 35N75W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 35N75W
TO NE OF THE BAHAMAS AT 27N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E
FROM 27N68W TO 23N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE WARM FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT. FURTHER E...A 1010 MB LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N39W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 30N38W TO 25N44W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 32N27W TO 23N40W TO 20N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-80W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E...WHILE
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY E WITH SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEROLOGICAL SERVICES OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY
BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES
ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT
WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS
ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
FORMOSA

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