[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 5N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
5N18W TO 0N30W TO 0N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S43W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-
7N BETWEEN 1W-10W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE ITCZ FROM 5N-2S BETWEEN 18W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC... A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N93W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF THE COAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 94W-97W. THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO THE SE
GULF AT 24N83W. THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT IS VOID OF ANY
PRECIPITATION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 18N.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE NW GULF
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS. A LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER
N ALABAMA NEAR 34N86W PRODUCING WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE OVER THE GULF. ALSO EXPECT A 1018 MB
HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
BE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO AT 18N67W TO NW
VENEZUELA AT 11N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 69W-74W. 10 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 77W. THE W CARIBBEAN
HAS 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. ONLY BEAUFORT ONE SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE
NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE WESTERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 72W AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BROKEN HIGH CLOUD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO N COLOMBIA DUE TO
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W AT 10 KTS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TO A TRIPLE POINT AT 32N75W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
32N75W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N75W
TO NE OF THE BAHAMAS AT 26N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E
FROM 26N70W TO 23N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE WARM FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT. FURTHER E...A 1011 MB LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N43W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 33N39W TO 29N40W TO 26N46W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N27W TO 23N40W TO 20N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY
E...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY E WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEROLOGICAL SERVICES OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY
BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES
ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT
WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS
ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net