[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
3N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
3N20W TO 0N26W TO 0N35W TO 2N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 4N44W TO 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 8W-12W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 3N-2S
BETWEEN 20W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-3S
BETWEEN 36W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 29N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N83W TO
THE NE GULF AT 28N84W TO THE CENTRAL GULF AT 26N90W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE
ELSEWHERE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... S MEXICO...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA S OF 22N BETWEEN 88W-98W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO
BECOME ZONAL. ALSO EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE
DISSIPATING OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N63W TO
HISPANIOLA AT 19N70W TO JAMAICA AT 18N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER S...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA
RICA... NICARAGUA...W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA.
THE USUAL TRADEWINDS HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED AND
REPLACED WITH 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS W OF 70W...AND 5 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW IS NOTED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO EXTEND FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO N COLOMBIA. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM E SOUTH CAROLINA
TO 31N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO COCOA BEACH
FLORIDA AT 28N81W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO NE OF THE
BAHAMAS AT 27N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E FROM 27N76W TO
23N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 76W-78W. FURTHER E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 32N31W TO 26N40W TO 23N50W TO 23N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. A 1018
MB HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 18N40W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N17W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-80W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E...WHILE
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY E WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEROLOGICAL SERVICES OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY
BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES
ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT
WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS
ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
FORMOSA


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