[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
02N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 40W TO
02N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 02N46W TO 04N43W REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 13W-
24W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 35W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE NE GULF NEAR
30N86W AND EXTENDS SW TO 28N90W THEN TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
27N97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT E OF 90W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE BASIN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 90W.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE GULF BY LATE MONDAY WITH
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AS THE OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND SLIGHTLY MODIFIED FROM THE USUAL E-
NE TRADE WIND FLOW. AN AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING IS ESTABLISHED
OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC S OF 27N WHICH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD AND
COVERS THE BASIN BETWEEN 62W-76W. WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
E OF 67W AS ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N74W NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLC PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...W OF 74W...N-NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO
15 KT CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALABAMA THIS EVENING THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N81W TO 29N79W WHICH THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY TO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N72W. WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED TO THE E-SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND A SURFACE FRONT IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM NORTHEAST OF THE
FRONT. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 37N48W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 33N TO THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N33W AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N36W TO
25N45W TO 23N54W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 25N63W AND INTO
THE AFOREMENTIONED 1010 MB LOW NEAR 25N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SW NORTH ATLC. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 23N62W TO
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FINALLY...A SURFACE
RIDGE IS MAINTAINING CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N14W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE HIGH TO 30N20W TO 22N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEROLOGICAL SERVICES OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY
BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES
ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT
WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS
ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
HUFFMAN


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