[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300610
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N18W TO 4N21W WHERE THE
ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 2N30W 1N38W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE
W GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND W ATLC ANCHORED
BY A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS. ONE HIGH IS IN THE GULF OFF CEDAR
KEY FLORIDA NEAR 29N84W WHILE THE SECOND IS IN THE W ATLC.
SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W GULF COUPLED WITH THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW
GULF N OF 23N W OF 93W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH EARLY TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE N GULF TUE
MORNING AND WILL EXTEND FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO TUE
NIGHT THEN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE E ATLC IS
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT IS
ANALYZED AS A SHEAR AXIS ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO SW HAITI. REMNANT
MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N
FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA AND CONTINUING WITHIN
120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 19N77W TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N84W
INCLUDING JAMAICA. SIMILARLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N72W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
17N62W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOWER
PRESSURE OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY
A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS. ONE IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N76W WHILE
THE SECOND IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 47W-65W SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W AND EXTENDS
ALONG 2N48W 19N56W TO 18N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N TO OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 63W-72W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE W
TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE E ATLC. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N25W. W
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR W
ATLC LATE TUE AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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