[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292309
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT
12N16W INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 6N18W 4N21W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N34W EQ41W 2S47W.
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 19W-
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA NEAR
30N84W. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS IN THE NE GULF
WITH 10-15 KT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW IS PRESENT ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXTENDS THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE FAR NW GULF
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. DRY AIR ALOFT IS ALSO HELPING
MAINTAIN THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
ALONG 18N64W 17N78W 14N82W. BASED ON RECENT ASCAT PASSES...THE
AXIS IS NEARLY DISSIPATED WITH WINDS OF EQUAL SPEEDS TO EITHER
SIDE. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE STILL BEING PRODUCED IN THE AREA
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY UP TO 200 NM NORTH AND WEST OF THE AXIS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT IN MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE...TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT SPREAD THROUGHOUT WITH A FEW
AREAS OF 25 KT WINDS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE SHEAR AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE AREA OF 25 KT TRADEWINDS SPREADS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SPREAD
OVER INTO THE WEST ATLC AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST
ATLC. A COLD FRONT STILL IMPACTS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N35W AND
TRAILING SW TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 23N50W 19N62W CONTINUING
AS A SHEAR AXIS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N22W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THIS AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

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