[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 7N12W TO 2N18W 2N24W AND 1N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 1N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1S33W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN
18W AND 19W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 27W AND 28W...
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE BAHAMAS...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 40N68W. ANY PART OF A TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER DOES NOT REACH THE
GULF OF MEXICO. RESULTANT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE 40N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...SPANS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONIC CENTER ULTIMATELY SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...ABOUT 100 NM TO THE
WEST OF BERMUDA...TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W...TO THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 67W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 20N86W 21N84W 22N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM CUBA NEAR 23N79W 26N70W 28N60W
BEYOND 32N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 21N82W 18N85W...INTO
CENTRAL HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN HONDURAS FROM
14N TO 15N BETWEEN 86W AND 87W.

BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N
IN GENERAL.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A TEXAS 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N97W...THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS TO 23N98W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST...TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...
ICAO STATION KGVX ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS
REPORTING SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER
REPORTING BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE LAST
THREE HOURS. ICAO STATION KBBF...ALSO ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST...IS REPORTING CLEAR SKIES.
ICAO STATIONS KGBK AND KHQI ARE REPORTING MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS. ICAO STATION KCRH...OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA...IS REPORTING
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. WIND SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. OTHER STATIONS ARE REPORTING 15 KNOT WIND
SPEEDS WITH GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS OR SO.

MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS.
REYNOSA MEXICO...MCALLEN AND EDINBURG IN TEXAS
ARE REPORTING CLEAR SKIES. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
COVER THE REST OF THE GULF COAST PLAINS FROM THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TO NAPLES FLORIDA. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN
MARATHON IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND AT THE
KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT THAT IS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...FROM 23N80W TO 20N88W. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO 95W...THE SEA
HEIGHTS ARE COMPARATIVELY THE HIGHEST IN THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS...ACROSS JAMAICA...THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N69W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 82W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF COLOMBIA WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N75W. THE PRECIPITATION WAS
COMPARATIVELY STRONGER IN INTENSITY DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2....AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 23N80W 20N88W. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 13.5N
BETWEEN 64W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO
29N30W AND 25N39W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 43W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N54W
TO 21N70W...CROSSING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 20N81W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N12W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N19W...TO 19N38W 17N50W...AND TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY APPEARS
TO MERGE WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE 25N57W 20N84W
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 26N35W 24N41W COLD FRONT.
EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 41W.
EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOTS OR LESS WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF
41W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N69W 23N80W.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 60W.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 41W AND 60W. EXPECT
ALSO 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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