[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N16W TO 04N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 04N20W TO 02N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE GULF THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A
VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC
STATES NEAR 38N78W. WHILE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS LIE NORTH OF
33N OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE
BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W THEN SW TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W AND ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
COAST. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THE FRONT EXITS THE BASIN...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN
THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY E OF
96W THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N76W THAT ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE AND TRANQUIL ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS A COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 16N87W TO THE COLD FRONT
NEAR 21N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET
WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH
POTENTIAL HIGHER WIND SPEEDS S OF 13N BETWEEN 63W-75W. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY INTRODUCING STRONG N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER
MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES NEAR 38N78W. THIS LOW
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N71W SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N77W AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 65W-71W. WEST OF THE
FRONT...STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT
ARE NOTED GENERALLY N OF 28N THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 24N46W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 38N24W THAT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT FROM 32N27W TO 24N41W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. FINALLY...A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE CANARY
AND MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 31N16W THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF TH
EASTERN ATLC WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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