[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR
10N14W TO 6N16W 2N23W AND 1N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 1N29W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO
1S36W TO 1S40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 1N TO THE AFRICA COAST BETWEEN 3W AND 7W...
AND FROM 1S TO 5N BETWEEN 18W AND 25W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
10N95W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 16N97W TO 25N95W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-
TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. MUCH OF THE RESULTING WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA IS NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY.

A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N82W IN
FLORIDA. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORMING
INLAND...COVERING THE AREA FROM MEXICO TO TEXAS
AND INCLUDING LOUISIANA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W.
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W WITH THE DEVELOPING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS RANGING FROM 2200 FEET TO
5500 FEET COVER THE AREA. THE ICAO STATIONS KGVX
AND KMZG THAT ARE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ARE
REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES AND FOG.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING IN PORT ISABEL.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COASTAL PLAINS TO THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR
AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF COAST AREAS
FOR MOST OF LOUISIANA...BECOMING MIDDLE LEVEL
CEILINGS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD
TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE FLORIDA COAST FROM NAPLES TO BROOKSVILLE.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS BETWEEN 84W AND 90W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
TO CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N60W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N64W 25N66W 21N70W...JUST
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N74W TO 22N80W IN
SOUTHERN COASTAL CUBA...TO 22N83W AND TO 22N87W
AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 50W AND
54W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 47W AND
57W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 21N
BETWEEN 58W AND 71W INCLUDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 32N TO THE WEST OF
70W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND TO THE
EAST OF 85W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR
10N90W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...CURVING TOWARD
JAMAICA AND BEYOND. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...BECOMING PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 17N.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS
GUATEMALA...INTO WESTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM 12 HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH...NORTHEAST...
AND EAST OF THE LINE 20N84W 16N77W 15N75W 13N70W...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA ALONG 8N75W
BEYOND 7N81W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE WESTERN
PANAMA COAST FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 84W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N11W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 26N20W.
THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 26N20W TO 21N32W.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N8W 24N20W 20N34W 24N46W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1024 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N39W TO 24N47W
AND 20N60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE 32N11W
21N32W FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE 32N58W 20N74W
COLD FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N60W TO 22N72W
TO 21N76W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT TO 50W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT TO 76W. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE FOUND
TO THE NORTH OF 26N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 53W.
EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 16 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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