[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR
10N14W TO 6N16W 3N20W AND 2N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 2N26W TO 1N36W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 41W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N46W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N
BETWEEN 17W AND 26W. SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF
1N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 13N94W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO 24N97W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MUCH OF THE RESULTING WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA IS NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY.

A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N87W TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORMING INLAND...COVERING THE AREA
FROM MEXICO TO TEXAS AND INCLUDING LOUISIANA. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE EAST OF 90W. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W WITH
THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS RANGING FROM 2900 FEET TO
4900 FEET COVER THE AREA. THE ICAO STATION KMZG THAT
IS OFF THE TEXAS COAST IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY
OF 3 MILES AND FOG.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING IN PORT ISABEL.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COASTAL PLAINS TO THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR
AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF COAST AREAS
FOR MOST OF LOUISIANA...BECOMING MIDDLE LEVEL
CEILINGS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD
TO FLORIDA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM NAPLES TO BROOKSVILLE. PARTLY CLOUDY
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE FLORIDA
GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM PERRY WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 36 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH
OF 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
TO CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N60W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO
26N67W 23N70W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TO
22N77W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
22N77W TO 23N83W IN CUBA...TO 22N88W AT THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM 25N TO 32N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF
25N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W...
TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...FROM
18N TO 20N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W...FROM 23N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 67W...AND TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 27N70W 27N80W.
RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND THE 83W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR
10N90W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...CURVING TOWARD
JAMAICA AND BEYOND. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...BECOMING PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 17N.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS GUATEMALA...
TOWARD HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING
FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS...
TO THE SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
AT 21/2115 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN HONDURAS FROM 14N TO 15N
BETWEEN 86W AND 87W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH...NORTHEAST...AND
EAST OF THE LINE 18N84W 16N74W 13N70W...IN AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA ALONG 8N75W
TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N82W IN PANAMA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN PANAMA FROM 8N TO 9N
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 82W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 84W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
SUPPORTS A 32N14W 26N21W 23N32W COLD FRONT.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.

 A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N41W TO 14N56W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N62W TO 22N70W TO 21N76W
AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH 31N59W TO 24N67W...AND RELATED
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 12 FEET.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W. EXPECT ALSO TO THE NORTH
OF 19N TO THE EAST OF 50W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 16 FT IN NW SWELL...HIGHEST NE PART.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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