[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR
10N14W TO 5N16W AND 2N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
2N20W TO 1N30W 1N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 2N TO THE EAST OF 3W AND
WITHIN 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 1S43W 1N48W 2N51W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 31W
AND 38W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W...MOSTLY TO
THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N69W 24N73W MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THAT TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 28N80W...CUTTING ACROSS FLORIDA
ALONG 28N TO 28N84W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N84W
TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W...
TO 26N90W AND 26N97W...JUST OFFSHORE THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N74W 23N78W ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS TOWARD CUBA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
25N78W 23N82W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W
AND 87W.

THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HAZE COVER THE PLATFORMS THAT ARE ALONG
THE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 MILES WITH FOG ARE ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF 91W. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
REST OF THE PLATFORM SITES.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL
PLAINS. CEILINGS ARE DEVELOPING GRADUALLY IN THE AREAS
THAT ARE REPORTING CLEAR/FAIR SKIES WITH SCATTERED MIDDLE
LEVEL AND/OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. NAPLES FLORIDA IS REPORTING
A VISIBILITY OF 2.5 MILES AND FOG.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 6 HOUR FORECAST OF A NEW COLD FRONT ALONG 30N87W
28N92W 27N98W...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 11N78W
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N55W...TO 25N65W...
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA...AND THE EAST-CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH...NORTHEAST...AND
EAST OF THE LINE 19N84W 16N75W 14N70W 11N65W...IN AREAS
OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING
AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...WAS 1.08 INCHES.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA
AND 85W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST
OF 73W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N
TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N69W TO 28N71W 25N72W AND 24N73W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W
TO 28N80W...CUTTING ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 28N TO
28N84W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N84W TO
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W...
TO 26N90W AND 26N97W...JUST OFFSHORE THE TEXAS/
MEXICO BORDER. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N74W
23N78W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARD CUBA. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N78W 23N82W IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W 24N69W...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THE COAST OF CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND
77W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 11N78W
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 20N68W 27N62W BEYOND 32N58W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W
TO 26N40W AND 15N43W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 28N49W AND 33N56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W
26N40W 26N50W BEYOND 31N57W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 27N25W...TO
A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N38W...
TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N55W...
TO 25N65W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA...AND THE
EAST-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT 20 KNOT WIND OR LESS WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT TO 54W. A 24-HOUR FORECAST INCLUDES A NEW COLD FRONT
ALONG 31N73W 28N77W 26N80W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH
OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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