[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 200604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR
11N15W TO 10N16W 6N17W AND 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
4N20W TO 1N28W 1N38W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 41W...
TO 3S47W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE
THAT STARTS AT 2S44W AND CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
45W TO 1N48W AND 2N51W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 1N TO THE EAST OF 5W AND FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 1S BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N72W 24N77W MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THAT TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N80W...CUTTING ACROSS FLORIDA
ALONG 28N TO 28N82W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
FLORIDA 28N82W TO 29N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO
25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N93W...
26N96W AND 25N97W ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA OF THE PRECIPITATION.

THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 MILES
WITH FOG ARE ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF 91W. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
AND 2 MILES VISIBILITY AND FOG ARE REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION
KCRH...AND 4 MILES VISIBILITY WITH FOG AT THE ICAO STATION KECH.
THE REST OF THE PLATFORMS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
91W AND 95W ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
THAT RANGE FROM 5 MILES TO 10 MILES. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THAT RANGE FROM 2.5 MILES AND FOG AT THE ICAO
STATION KGVX AND TO 5 MILES AT THE ICAO STATION KMZG ARE
REPORTED AT THE PLATFORMS THAT ARE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
FAIR SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL
PLAINS FROM APALACHICOLA WESTWARD...FAIR SKIES WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE FLORIDA COASTAL
PLAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 12 HOUR FORECAST OF A NEW COLD FRONT ALONG 29N82W
29N89W 28N97W...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST
OF 89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 12N79W
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N72W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
IN CUBA NEAR 22N79W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR TO
18N80W TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...TO 13N81W.

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN
GUATEMALA FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 89W AND 90W. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO GUATEMALA
AND THE WESTERN HALF OF HONDURAS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH...NORTHEAST...AND
EAST OF THE LINE 18N85W 17N80W 17N73W 15N71W 14N67W
11N63W...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W IN COLOMBIA TO
11N78W...INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W...
ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...AND BEYOND 11N86W INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N
TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W
TO 29N75W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W JUST TO THE EAST
OF ANDROS ISLAND. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N80W...CUTTING ACROSS FLORIDA
ALONG 28N TO 28N82W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
FLORIDA 28N82W TO 29N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO
25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N93W...
26N96W AND 25N97W ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN
210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N62W 29N66W 26N71W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N71W 22N77W ALONG THE COAST
OF CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 12N79W
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 20N71W 26N65W BEYOND 32N62W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W
TO 24N44W AND 15N43W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 31N41W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY
AT 31N41W AND IT CONTINUES TO 29N50W AND 31N57W. A WARM
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N57W BEYOND 32N58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W
26N40W 26N50W BEYOND 32N61W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N2W
ALONG ALGERIA/MOROCCO BORDER TO 28N10W AND THE CANARY ISLANDS.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W
TO 31N17W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO
THE EAST OF 18W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 28N20W 26N36W...TO A 1021 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N56W...TO 27N62W...
AND 26N72W...TO A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
IN CUBA NEAR 22N79W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR TO
18N80W TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...TO 13N81W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 42W.
THE 36 HOUR FORECAST INCLUDES A 31N69W 25N80W COLD FRONT.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN
8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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