[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180605
TWDAT

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N39W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N53W...TO 27N65W AND 28N77W...CROSSING
FLORIDA...AND CONTINUING TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 6N19W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N19W TO 4N26W 4N31W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
40W...TO 2S47W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 8W AND 9W...
FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 28W AND 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N77W...
PASSING OVER FLORIDA...TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 17/2115 UTC. IT MOVED NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME
AND IT HAS DISSIPATED SINCE THEN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...TO
THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 88W AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SOME OF
THAT PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE REMAINING IN THAT AREA AT THE PRESENT.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 88W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W
INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 21N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...THE VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM 1.5 MILES TO 5 MILES
WITH HAZE AND FOG FOR THE STATIONS THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. THE ICAO STATION KCRH IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1/4 OF A MILE
WITH FOG AND A LOW CLOUD CEILING. ICAO STATION KVBS...JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA...IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1/2 A MILE WITH FOG
AND A LOW CLOUD CEILING. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE OBSERVATIONS
FOR NEARLY ALL THE REST OF THE PLATFORM SITES IS LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES OF 5 MILES OR LOWER. THE ICAO STATIONS KMDJ AND
KIPN ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 9 AND 10 MILES.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. BEAUMONT/
PORT ARTHUR AND GALVESTON ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LOWER.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND WESTWARD. SAINT PETERSBURG AND SARASOTA ARE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN.
FAIR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TO THE SOUTH OF SARASOTA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST THAT IS NEAR 10N75W TO 15N80W...
BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/WESTERN CUBA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 82W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.
EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST. ALSO EXPECT
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W AND ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 64W
AND 72W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W INCLUDING IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 27N29W
TO 23N36W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N31W...TO 23N40W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N40W TO 22N50W TO 19N61W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 32N26W
TO 27N29W 22N40W 22N47W 21N52W 20N57W AND 19N63W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N41W 18N48W 19N51W
17N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N39W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N53W...TO 27N65W AND 28N77W...CROSSING
FLORIDA...AND CONTINUING TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 25N14W IN THE WESTERN SAHARA...
TO 19N23W AND 16N50W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 26N35W 23N40W
22N52W DISSIPATING COLD FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF 27N WITHIN 300 NM
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT TO LINE FROM 31N65W TO 20N72W
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET. EXPECT 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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