[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 3N23W 4N29W 2N37W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-25W AND FROM 4N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE N GULF EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO 28N88W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 87W-92W INCLUDING THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE STRAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF
26N E OF 88W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO RETREAT E ONLY COVERING THE E GULF AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E THROUGH MON ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF FROM W TO E IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON EVENING
THEN QUICKLY REACH FROM THE W FLORIDA TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND
STALL FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER LATE TUE INTO
WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE ACROSS MOST OF THE N AND CENTRAL
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER
HIGH OFF THE COAST OF GUYANA SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N58W. AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE
USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON WEAKENING TUE THROUGH THU AS
THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS E. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE W INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC S OF 25N WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CUBA N TO ALONG THE US EASTERN SEABOARD ENHANCING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FAR W ATLC MAINLY N OF 26N
W OF 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE
FAR E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR
27N62W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE E ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N30W TO A WEAK 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 29N32W AND CONTINUES ALONG 25N37W TO 23N42W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES ALONG 21N54W TO NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
19N61W. THIS FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR THUS NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH TUE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA
LATE MON AND WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO W CUBA BY EARLY WED THEN WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE WED INTO THU. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY W ATLC THU AND MERGE WITH
THE FIRST FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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