[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150616 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2013

CORRECTION TO THE DATE/TIME GROUP AND HEADER...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...
GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...
AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUBH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N29W...AFTER A
DISCONTINUITY IN THE FIELD...TO 3N35W 1N42W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 45W... TO 2S48W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 2N TO
5N TO THE EAST OF 13W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 25W AND 32W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 29N74W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. MIDDLE LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH
OF 27N. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N65W...TO 21N73W IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR
21N73W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N80W...TO 15N84W IN EASTERN
HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 25N65W 20N74W 17N80W... AND FROM
13N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W. THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS A SECOND SURGE OF COMPARATIVELY COLDER AIR.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE NORTH OF 27N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO... BEYOND FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH OF 27N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
TO A SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...
TO 26N96W OFF THE TEXAS COAST...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE OBSERVED FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO LOUISIANA...AND ALL OF FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...
CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE AREA.
ONLY ICAO STATION KCRH IS REPORTING OVERCAST CLOUDS AT 5500 FEET.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOTS
OR LESS WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
24N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WINDS.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS PASSES THROUGH
32N37W TO 23N37W 18N39W 12N45W AND 7N53W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N42W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 31N33W TO 25N35W 19N40W AND 14N46W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN
30W AND 38W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 16N 23N37W 17N50W
15N60W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN
60W AND 73W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 9N60W 19N60W
26N57W...BEYOND 32N53W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS IN GENERAL ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W...THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG
21N75W 16N86W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 9N60W 19N60W
26N57W... EYOND 32N53W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO
27N33W TO 23N34W 15N34W AND 5N36W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT...THAT EXTENDS FROM A 998 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N31W...TO 26N32W 22N36W AND 19N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 28N28W 25N29W AND 20N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF 21N30W 16N50W 15N60W.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N61W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN THE 32N31W 19N42W COLD FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 31N62W TO 21N75W. N OF 28N W OF 76W
NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF BAHAMAS TO 65W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.

.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 25N35W TO 18N41W. N OF 21N E OF FRONT S TO
SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL. N OF 27N
BETWEEN 37W AND 43W NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT IN NW
SWELL.  ELSEWHERE E OF 65W TO A LINE FROM 21N37W TO 07N48W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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