[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 9N60W 19N60W 26N57W...BEYOND 32N53W.
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
 FRI MAR 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUBH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N29W...AFTER A DISCONTINUITY IN THE FIELD...TO 3N35W 1N42W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...
TO 2S48W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 2N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 13W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 25W
AND 32W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 29N74W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. MIDDLE LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N65W...TO
21N73W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 21N73W...ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N80W...TO 15N84W
IN EASTERN HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 25N65W 20N74W 17N80W...
AND FROM 13N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N68W. THIS FRONT REPRESENTS A SECOND SURGE OF COMPARATIVELY COLDER AIR.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BEYOND FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH OF 27N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...TO A SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 1028 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 26N96W OFF THE TEXAS COAST...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-
FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE OBSERVED FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO LOUISIANA...AND ALL OF FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...
CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY ICAO STATION KCRH
IS REPORTING OVERCAST CLOUDS AT 5500 FEET.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER
THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WINDS.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 23N37W
18N39W 12N45W AND 7N53W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N33W TO 25N35W 19N40W AND 14N46W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 16N 23N37W
17N50W 15N60W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 9N60W 19N60W 26N57W...BEYOND 32N53W.
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS IN GENERAL ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W...THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 21N75W 16N86W.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 9N60W 19N60W 26N57W...BEYOND 32N53W.
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 27N33W TO 23N34W
15N34W AND 5N36W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT...THAT EXTENDS FROM A 998 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N31W...TO 26N32W 22N36W AND 19N42W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 28N28W 25N29W AND 20N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 21N30W 16N50W 15N60W.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N61W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE 32N31W 19N42W
COLD FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...
.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 31N62W TO 21N75W. N OF 28N W OF 76W NW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF BAHAMAS TO 65W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.

.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 25N35W TO 18N41W. N OF 21N E OF FRONT S TO
SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL. N OF 27N
BETWEEN 37W AND 43W NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT IN NW
SWELL.  ELSEWHERE E OF 65W TO A LINE FROM 21N37W TO 07N48W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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