[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO
05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N18W TO 02N22W TO 01N35W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 08W-14W...AND S OF
05N BETWEEN 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER THE
GULF BASIN THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 93W. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
ANCHORED ON A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 34N90W. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGING IS A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THE FRONT
ENTERS THE GULF AS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NEAR 24N80W AND EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 23N85W TO 24N94W.
WHILE MOSTLY DRY E OF 90W...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
W OF 90W WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. BY FRIDAY...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HAVE RE-ESTABLISHED THEMSELVES W OF 90W
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N57W WHICH IS PROVIDING THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE UPPER
LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENTERS
THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 70W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND TERMINATES NEAR 18N63W...
HOWEVER THE LINGERING MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N
OF 16N E OF 78W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...E-NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
E OF 78W THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
36N70W AND REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS A 990 MB LOW OFFSHORE OF
THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 36N70W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N66W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE E-NE.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF A COLD FRONT BRIDGING TWO SURFACE HIGHS...ONE
CENTERED NEAR 26N55W AS A 1019 MB HIGH AND THE OTHER A 1018 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 20N35W. THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN THEM IS
ANALYZED FROM 32N18W SW TO 26N30W TO 20N46W AND THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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