[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
05N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N16W TO 02N21W TO 02N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 04W-13W...AND S OF
04N BETWEEN 17W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER THE
GULF BASIN THIS EVENING WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 94W. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF ANCHORED ON A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
29N94W. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGING IS A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THE FRONT
ENTERS THE GULF AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
25N80W AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TO 24N85W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO
23N94W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. WHILE MOSTLY
DRY E OF 90W...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF 90W
WITHIN 150 NM NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NW GULF SHIFTS EASTS. BY FRIDAY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HAVE RE-ESTABLISHED THEMSELVES W OF 90W
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N57W WHICH IS PROVIDING THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE UPPER
LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENTERS
THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 70W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND TERMINATES NEAR
17N62W...HOWEVER THE LINGERING MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 17N E OF 78W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NORTH OF JAMAICA
NEAR 19N77W TO 14N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W
TO 10N83W OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...E-NE TRADE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST E OF 78W THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
36N72W AND REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS A 992 MB LOW OFFSHORE OF
THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 37N73W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N78W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE E-NE. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING IS NOTED ON EITHER
SIDE OF A COLD FRONT BRIDGING THE TWO SURFACE HIGHS...ONE
CENTERED NEAR 25N57W AS A 1020 MB HIGH AND THE OTHER A 1019 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 20N28W. THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN THEM IS
ANALYZED FROM 32N24W SW TO 22N40W TO 19N54W AND THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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