[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
83W/84W FROM 13N IN NICARAGUA TO 20N TO THE SOUTH
OF CUBA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N IN CENTRAL AMERICA TO 24N
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 80W AND 95W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING ACROSS FLORIDA
TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE BAHAMAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN
80W AND 86W REACHING COASTAL HONDURAS...AND FROM 21N
TO 22N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA.
EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS COVERING THE AREA FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO CUBA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
TROPICAL WAVE...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 79W. THE WAVE POSITION IS
FORECAST TO BE ALONG 85W DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.
EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
TO THE SOUTH OF 19N.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/54W
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N...REACHING NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
SURINAME. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
49W AND 53W. IT IS ANTICIPATED THE WAVE WILL MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
FORECAST IS THAT THE WAVE WILL REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTERACT EVENTUALLY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CYCLONIC
CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...NEAR 23N65W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 6N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N22W
TO 7N36W 6N45W AND 8N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N TO
10N TO THE EAST OF 16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 24W...AND FROM 9N TO
10N BETWEEN 38W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
FROM 3N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF  27N82W 24N90W 19N94W. THIS AREA
IS AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS
RELATED TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL WAVE.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
25N.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N65W TO 29N76W...
TO AN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N84W...TO 26N94W
IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN AREA.
LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN MILTON
FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BROKEN LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE TAMPA
FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA...EXTENDING TO NAPLES
FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
TO THE EAST OF 80W. PART OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT
IS ORIGINATING FROM THE 83W/84W TROPICAL WAVE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 27N56W TO 22N62W...BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART
OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS
NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 10N77W...CUTTING ACROSS PANAMA
FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG 8N/9N...BEYOND 9N83W IN
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN PANAMA AND
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 10N TO THE
EAST OF 90W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR
LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM
14N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W AND FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 77W AND 79W.

EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 11N
TO THE WEST OF 79W WITH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE POSITION IS FORECAST
TO BE ALONG 85W DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.
EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF 19N.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N64W TO 23N67W...
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 17N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. HISPANIOLA IS JUST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA
WILL BE IN THE AREA OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST
IS FOR A TROUGH/WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TOP OF
PUERTO RICO...AND THEN AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE BY THE END OF 48 HOURS.
A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD AT 250 MB. BROAD SURFACE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST NEAR
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 31N46W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N50W
13N54W AND 9N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 26N TO 29N
BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 24N62W
20N65W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 23N20W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N65W TO 29N76W...
TO AN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N84W...TO 26N94W
IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N56W
22N62W...BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE
WEST OF 46W. THE VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM
3 TO 5 NAUTICAL MILES IN HAZE FROM 12N TO 21N
TO THE EAST OF 66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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